China’s Garlic Market Analysis on April 1, 2025: Price Fluctuations and Market Tug-of-War
Latest Garlic Prices (April 1, 2025)
The latest garlic prices from key production areas in China (converted to USD and EUR, assuming exchange rates of 1 USD ≈ 7.2 CNY and 1 EUR ≈ 7.8 CNY):
| Region | Specification | Lowest Price (CNY/lb) | Highest Price (CNY/lb) | Average Price (CNY/lb) | Average Price (USD/lb) | Average Price (EUR/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laiwu, Shandong | Regular garlic | 4.70 | 4.80 | 4.75 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| 6.5cm garlic | 5.85 | 6.00 | 5.92 | 0.82 | 0.76 | |
| Laning, Shandong | Silverskin garlic (Indonesia quality) | 5.00 | 5.10 | 5.05 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| Silverskin garlic (market quality) | 5.40 | 5.60 | 5.50 | 0.76 | 0.71 | |
| Zhongmou, Henan | Hybrid red garlic (Indonesia quality) | 4.30 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| Garlic for processing | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.25 | 0.59 | 0.54 |
Market Analysis: Price Fluctuations and Growing Uncertainty
1. Supply-Demand Imbalance Driving Market Volatility
At the beginning of March, China’s national garlic inventory hit a five-year low at just 1.23 million tons. From September 2024 to January 2025, over 500,000 tons were sold each month, driven by strong demand, pushing prices upward. However, in March, the market dynamics shifted dramatically.
2. Reasons Behind the Recent Price Drop
Increase in New Garlic Planting Area: Garlic seedlings are growing well in the fields, and many traders worry that the upcoming harvest will flood the market, pushing prices down.
Pressure from Expiring Inventory: As April approaches, traders are rushing to offload their stocks, especially those nearing expiration, leading to a sudden increase in supply and a drop in prices.
Declining Futures Prices: Lower futures prices are weakening confidence among traders, further encouraging selling.
3. Price Outlook: Market to Remain in a Tug-of-War
Bullish Perspective: The low inventory is a hard fact, and most stock is held by major traders, who are not in a hurry to sell. Additionally, domestic and international demand remains strong, making it difficult for prices to drop significantly.
Bearish Perspective: The pressure from new garlic hitting the market is growing, and with another wave of inventory clearance in early April, supply will remain high in the short term, limiting price increases.
4. Market Forecast: Stable but Fluctuating Prices
Based on current data, the garlic market will likely remain volatile in the coming months, with no extreme surges or crashes. Prices could only rise sharply if extreme weather reduces yields or if exports increase suddenly. Otherwise, the ongoing supply-demand battle will keep prices fluctuating within a stable range.
Conclusion: The Chinese garlic market is undergoing an adjustment period, with buyers and sellers holding conflicting price expectations. Short-term price fluctuations are likely, but major spikes or crashes are unlikely. Traders should closely monitor inventory depletion rates, new garlic availability, and weather conditions to make informed purchasing decisions.
(Disclaimer: This analysis represents personal market observations and does not constitute investment or procurement advice.)