China Garlic Prices Shift Again: Market Trends and Forecast (as of June 3)
As of June 3, China’s ajo market displays a clear north-south split. Northern cold-storage garlic shows tiered pricing based on size and storage quality, while southern fresh garlic suffers from high moisture content and weaker demand. With the peak harvest season underway, a surge in fresh supply has created pressure on old stock, but high-spec garlic remains resilient, reflecting a “premium for quality” trend.
Market Overview (Prices converted to USD, units in kg)
Cold Storage Garlic (庫內蒜)
| Region | Tipo | Price (USD/kg) | Notas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hebei, Daming | Wool garlic (with stems) | $0.32 – $0.35 | Strong storage properties; preferred by processors |
| Bunch garlic (low-end) | ~$0.21 | Used for low-grade garlic flakes | |
| Shandong, Tai’an (Banjiudian) | Cleaned head garlic | ~$0.22 | Low volume; tight specs limit buying |
| Shandong, Liaocheng (Dazhang) | Mixed grade | $0.31 – $0.35 | Well-formed bulbs selling faster |
| Dehydration material | $0.14 – $0.17 | Very low-grade, oversupplied | |
| Henan, Zhongmu (Dongguan Market) | Garlic rice grade | $0.28 – $0.30 | Lower moisture attracts processors |
| Indonesia spec | $0.31 – $0.32 | For Southeast Asian market | |
| Large mixed grade | $0.38 – $0.41 | Best-selling size in Henan |
Fresh Garlic (庫外蒜)
| Region | Tipo | Price (USD/kg) | Notas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong, Jinan (Shanghe) | Qingke seed garlic | ~$0.39 | Premium fresh garlic |
| Dehydration-use garlic | $0.24 – $0.25 | Moisture ~30%; weak demand | |
| Jiangsu, Fengxian (Liangzhai) | Raw skin garlic | $0.22 – $0.24 | Decent quality but limited export use |
| Small clove garlic | $0.18 – $0.20 | Mostly for pickling; demand down 20% | |
| Henan, Zhoukou (Huaiyang) | 70% dry garlic | $0.19 – $0.20 | Needs re-drying; prices under pressure |
| Wool garlic | ~$0.18 | Very wet; low storage value | |
| Garlic seeds | $0.32 – $0.34 | Stable seed market | |
| Shandong, Jinxiang (Maji Market) | Large mixed garlic | $0.38 – $0.40 | In good demand |
| “Space” garlic (>6.5cm) | $0.39 – $0.45 | High-end spec for Southeast Asia; 200+ tons/day sales |
Garlic Flakes Market (蒜片)
| Region | Year | Product | Price (USD/ton) | Notas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong, Jinxiang | 2024 | Hybrid garlic flakes | $2,338 – $2,408 | Slight price rebound (+3%) |
| 2018–2023 | Aged root flakes | $2,240 – $2,338 | Processors shifting back to old stock | |
| Hebei, Yongnian | 2025 | Hybrid flakes | $2,310 – $2,450 | Higher cost due to gas energy |
| – | 46-clove flakes | $2,380 – $2,520 | Premium processed garlic |
Key Price Drivers
1. Fresh Garlic Supply Surge
Moisture content of fresh garlic reaches up to 30%, discouraging processors.
Daily arrivals in Henan and Shandong exceed 20,000 tons, creating short-term oversupply.
2. Cold Storage Inventory
National old garlic stock sits around 400,000 tonscon 60% stored in Jinxiang.
Traders resist price drops, but fresh garlic sets a ceiling on overall prices.
3. Weakened Export Demand
Southeast Asia buyers shift to cheaper Indian garlic.
June garlic export volumes projected to fall 15% month-on-month, limiting upside for large bulbs.
Market Outlook
Short-Term (Next 30 Days)
Fresh garlic prices likely to drop further.
Shandong mixed grades may fall below $0.28/kg.
Cold-storage garlic to remain firm due to holding costs.
Large mixed grades expected to stabilize around $0.35/kg.
Mid-to-Long Term (July Onward)
If exports rebound, high-end specs (e.g., “Space Garlic” >6.0 cm) could return to $0.42–$0.45/kg or higher.
Increasing garlic flake production may accelerate destocking of old inventory.
Conclusion
China’s garlic market is undergoing seasonal pressure, but the demand for high-spec, export-quality garlic remains steady. Processors and importers are advised to closely monitor:
Moisture levels in fresh stock
Size specification trends
Export order fluctuations
to make informed purchasing and supply chain decisions.
Disclaimer:
All price figures are approximate conversions from CNY to USD (based on a reference rate of ¥1 = $0.14) and are for general informational purposes only. Market conditions, exchange rates, and logistics costs may vary. This article does not constitute trading or investment advice.
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