Chilli Pepper Price and Market Overview March 2025

1. Fresh Chilli Price and Market Trends

Xiaomi Pepper: In March, prices fluctuated sharply. The late-season Hongmi Pepper in Danzhou, Hainan, reached ¥10-15 per jin ($1.38-2.08, €1.28-1.93). Meanwhile, new crops in Yulin, Guangxi, surged to ¥8.6 per jin ($1.19, €1.10)—over a 50% increase from February. Retail prices exceeded ¥15 per jin ($2.08, €1.93) as supply gaps widened.
Regional Price Differences: Wholesale prices varied significantly by location:
- Beipiao, Liaoning: ¥4.2/kg ($0.58, €0.54)
- Haibao International Trade Center, Xinjiang: ¥6.5/kg ($0.90, €0.83)
Green Chilli Prices: Prices remained relatively stable:
- Inner Mongolia: ¥4.25/kg ($0.59, €0.55)
- National average: ¥5.05/kg ($0.70, €0.65)

Supply Chain Disruptions: The late-season chilli supply from Hainan dropped by 30%, while new crops from Guangxi had yet to reach full production. Vietnam’s supply provided some relief, but logistics constraints limited availability.
Climate Impact: Cold and rainy conditions in southern China extended the growing cycle, while floods in Henan and Shandong in 2024 reduced production by 35%, depleting cold storage stocks early.

Stock Pressure: Prices remained stable for key varieties:
- Xiaomi dried chilli: ¥22.60/kg ($3.12, €2.91)
- Sanying chilli: ¥18.00/kg ($2.49, €2.32)
- However, the overall market faced downward pressure due to a 2024 stockpile of ~2.4 million tons.
Regional Variations:
- Inner Mongolia: Pointed chilli wholesale prices dropped 2.29%, from ¥6.75/kg ($0.93, €0.87) on March 22 to ¥6.4/kg ($0.88, €0.82) on March 25.

Oversupply Risks: Cultivated area in 2025 is expected to increase by 5-8%, with stock levels sufficient for 4-5 months of domestic demand. Prices may decline further in Q2, reaching ¥10-12/kg ($1.38-1.66, €1.28-1.54).
Demand Shift: Falling fresh chilli prices diverted some demand from dried chillies, while exports declined 8% YoY due to lower-cost competition from India.

Price Rebound: Inner Mongolia’s wholesale price stabilized at ¥6.4/kg ($0.88, €0.82) by March 25, reducing the previous week’s decline. National average prices slightly increased from ¥6.23/kg ($0.86, €0.80) on March 22 to ¥6.43/kg ($0.89, €0.83) on March 25.

Speculative Hoarding: Traders stockpiling high-quality Xiaomi chilli intensified supply shortages, inflating retail prices.
Government Intervention: Potential state purchases or subsidies for processing industries could temporarily support prices.

Structural Adjustments: Farmers are advised to shift production to low-cost regions (e.g., Xinjiang) or focus on high-value varieties for processing.
E-commerce Growth: Live-streaming sales and direct-to-consumer models are expected to mitigate regional supply-demand imbalances.

The March 2025 chilli market showed a mixed trend:

Fresh Chilli: Xiaomi pepper prices soared due to supply chain disruptions, while ordinary varieties remained stable.
Dried Chilli: High inventory levels suppressed prices, with potential further declines in Q2.
Regional Variations: Northern regions (Liaoning, Inner Mongolia) experienced less volatility compared to southern producers (Hainan, Guangxi), highlighting the impact of climate and logistics on supply chains.

For accurate market data and further reference, consider the following sources:

China Agricultural Wholesale Price Index (CAWPI) – www.chinaagri.com
National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) – www.stats.gov.cn
China Vegetable Association – www.cvagri.com
Local Agricultural Trade Platforms (e.g., 1688.com, Yimutian, China Agri Market)
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Price Index – www.fao.org
Global Chilli Price Reports from Trading Platforms (Alibaba, Global Sources, etc.)
China Customs & USDA Import/Export Data
Currency Exchange Rates:
- People’s Bank of China (PBoC) – www.pbc.gov.cn
- XE Currency Exchange – www.xe.com
- OANDA – www.oanda.com

Disclaimer: The above analysis reflects our independent market observations and is for reference only